After a long and deliberate abstention
from writing and interventionism,
provided by blogger, I am once again nearby. I would like to
apologize to my Greek
friends, but because of the many new English-speaking friends (persons and organizations) i will now use English as the language of our communication.I will not deal with
purely internal matters
of Greek politics, but mainly with the international implications and the causes of debt crisis
and the civil war in Syria.
I think that the two issues are linked, although the reasons that causes
them are completely independent
of one another. First of all, throughout
this period, i am reading and listening to analysis subsequently examine
whether it is «manageable»
a country to exit the euro
and how much this will cost Europe and
especially Germany. Despite the
fact that the above query has a logical base,
I believe that analysts are surrendered by the
statistics and the financial implications
of the issues and have overlooked some
other equally important aspects that can explain the attitudes and the
strategy that some countries
develope , especially Germany.I will not stand in numbers and statistics
because I do not have access to official information.Therefore I will make
another question that so far no one has done.And I will remain
on the theoretical side of the issue because, as I explained above, I do
not have access to official economic
data.I hope the economic aspect
of the following question provide
an opportunity for research
for economists.I will insist in political theory.
The question is: Is the energy independence of Germany biggest challenge
of rescuing the euro? Let me remind you of some
issues. After the nuclear accident in Fukushima, the German government moved in the decision to close about 20 nuclear reactors in its territory.This will happen gradually after few
years. Before the
incident in Fukushima, and because of Russia's conflict with Georgia and
Ukraine, the gas supply from
these regions to Germany and the rich industrial
north european countries in general ,was drastically reduced, leading the industries of these countries to address serious problems.
The discharge
of toxic assets of
bankrupt South lets
Germany and the rest of the rich North to guide decisions
at the point where they want.On this
point we are now. The
answer which will be given will define the future and the prospects for future European integration.
What is more important? The energy independence of Germany and North European industrial countries or saving the euro?It is worth an deadweight currency
like the today euro to be saved
? At what price? By the hyperinflation of Germany? Or maybe by spliting the
eurozone? What are
the social implications of a split over policies?
The Northern Europeans will decide with a view
to European integration or energy
independence? The voices that are heard more and more of a referendum on fiscal consolidation in Germany these days ,
I think divide and
bring more European integration
into question. Although the supporters
of the referendum place it in 2-5 years, decisions will be taken until
the end of 2012.
Can citizens of Germany and other North European countries live with their exports reduced over the next 5 years and inflation
that will be created with this whole
situation? One may wonder how energy
independence can be achievied when Germany depends
on Russian gas, and how this independence will overcome the effects of the
non-euro rescue?
The
answer
is as easy as cynical.Germany has provided
about 120 billion euros in Greek crisis.
Money
that the Greek government owes to German citizens.
The discovery of hydrocarbons
south of Crete, along
with mining made
by Cyprus and
Israel in the so called Land
Plot of Cyprus “12”, can result the leadership of Germany to another outlook
on the settlement of the Greek question. If the Germans decide that energy independence
is bigger challenge they can result to bankruptcy
the European South, however, undertaking
the price of reconstructing these
countries. Germany may provide the
bankrupt Greeks, Cypriots
and Italians that it will rebuild their countries, if take full exploitation of energy resources of these countries but also the construction of underwater pipelines linking sources to
Europe.
If
the energy independence of Germany is the answer to our question
and if the medium and long term benefits of such a motion
can bend the reactions of citizens of the Northern European countries by the hyperinflation
and declining exports, then we
can assume another aspect of the issue. And I say "we can assume"
because I do not know the financial details of such decisions or plans.
Regarding the issue
of Syria and how is
involved in the question above,
I want to say briefly
the following: First of all,
Syria has always been a "window"
of Russia in the Middle East.Any solution to
the issue must have the "consent" of Russia or shall the international community
to satisfy otherwise Russia. The location of Turkey next to Syria is giving Turkey an advantage in diplomatic contacts with
the international community about the control of the upcoming no-flight zones.It can be done by Turkish soil. The ability and willingness
of Turkey to play an important role in
the Muslim world, coupled with
the needs of NATO in the upcoming business
“Deposition of Bashar al-Assad”
can cause changes in energy balance
in the region. Assuming that the energy independence of Germany is a fact (and of course the exploitation of deposits of Cyprus and Greece and the pipelines of
Israel-Cyprus-Greece-Albania-Italy) and that the International community would
somehow satisfy Russia,
having access to
the Middle East and Mediterranean
,or/and that the Burgas-Alexandroupolis
pipeline will eventually be made,
we can outline the energy balance as the great enemy
of the euro-rescue. Provided of course that the energy independence of the Northern States of Europe is determined.
Germany will secure its energy
independence and leadership role in the reconstruction of European South,Tourkey will
become the focal point of the
West in the Muslim world and Russia will secure its
exit to the Mediterranean through
the pipeline and a port. (Alexandroupoli ,maybe?).And
of course the U.S. will have
through the reconstruction of Syria and the
U.S. oil companies
already operating in the area (Noble Energy etc.) full control over the geostrategic and
political struggle against Iran
which will happen after a while.
As I said, I will confine myself to
the political theory since I have no access to financial information of such
decisions. The original query is to become a focal point with the decisions
that will affect the geopolitical balance of our century. These balances are
much higher than the rescue of the euro as the currency is today.Are they?
If
I had access to official information and the formulation of policy
I am sure that I
would have more arguments and of course I would be more useful!
